Preprints
There are 2301 Preprints listed.
Dynamic range models improve the near-term forecast for a marine species on the move
Published: 2025-03-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Population dynamic models are widely used to predict demography. However, they have rarely been extended to biogeographical applications despite widespread calls to do so. We developed a process-based dynamic range model (DRM) that estimated demographic rates and the effects of the environment on demographic rates to forecast species range shifts in response to temperature change. As a proof of [...]
Mapping the potential risk of coronavirus spillovers in South and Southeast Asia
Published: 2025-03-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Public Health, Epidemiology, Life Sciences, Public Health
Bats harbor approximately a third of known mammal viruses, including recent coronaviruses that caused pandemics. As spillover risk increases due to habitat loss and fragmentation, utilizing a OneHealth approach, we identified potential zoonotic spillover and pandemic risk hotspots in South and Southeast Asia. We used a model that estimates the risk of infectious disease emergence by incorporating [...]
Studying Individuality in Behavioural Ecology: Overcoming Epistemic Challenges
Published: 2025-03-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Philosophy
Behavioural ecologists have recently begun to study individuality, that is, individual differences and uniqueness in phenotypic traits and in ecological relations. However, individuality is an unusual object of research. Using an ethnographic case study of individuality research in behavioural ecology, we analyse concerns that behavioural ecologists express about their ability to study [...]
Revision of a revised phylogenetic analysis of Leucheria Lag. sensu lato (Asteraceae; Nassauvieae) with remarks on theoretical aspects of phylogenetics and phylogenomics
Published: 2025-03-28
Subjects: Biodiversity
Presented here is a revised analysis of a previous phylogenetic analysis of the Leucheria Lag. s. l. crown group (Asteraceae; Nassauvieae), which was, in turn, a reanalysis of an earlier analysis of Leucheria s. stricto. Leucheria s. l. includes Polyachyrus Lag, and the crown group includes Oxyphyllum Phil. The present analysis adds several more recently published sequences of the nuclear [...]
Are tropical ant and termite assemblages along a forest recovery gradient habitat or dispersal limited?
Published: 2025-03-28
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Entomology, Life Sciences
Regenerating forests comprise a significant proportion of forest ecosystems in the tropics. While we are beginning to understand assembly mechanisms of tree communities after anthropogenic disturbances, those of animal communities are still poorly understood. It has been shown that locally established ant communities clearly assemble along gradients of forest recovery from active agriculture over [...]
Illustrated catalogue and preliminary phylogeny of 330 species of Arctiinae moth species from the Chocó rainforest in NW Ecuador: most species are undescribed
Published: 2025-03-28
Subjects: Life Sciences
Tropical rain forests are the most species rich terrestrial habitats on Earth, but their insect diversity is understudied, and it is unclear how many species are already scientifically described. A model group to study description patterns are tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae), a species-rich moth clade that comprises subtaxa that differ considerably in appearance. We inventoried Arctiinae moths [...]
LEPY: A Python-Based Pipeline for Automated Morphological Trait Analysis of Lepidoptera Images
Published: 2025-03-27
Subjects: Life Sciences
1. We present LEPY, a Python-based pipeline for automating the extraction and analysis of morphological traits, including structural and colour properties, from mounted Lepidoptera specimens. It uses a U-Net neural network for image segmentation and a scale bar for precise measurements. LEPY is designed to be easy and reproducible, ensuring efficient and consistent analysis of large Lepidoptera [...]
Taxonomic uncertainty: causes, consequences, and metrics
Published: 2025-03-27
Subjects: Life Sciences
Taxonomic uncertainty is prevalent across many biological groups. Yet it remains overlooked in ecology, evolution, and conservation research, leading to potential misinterpretations of biodiversity patterns. Here, we synthesize the recent literature to define taxonomic uncertainty, examine its root causes and consequences, and present key metrics for its quantification. We argue that species [...]
A fundamental theory of actual error for species population monitoring
Published: 2025-03-26
Subjects: Life Sciences
Progress towards many national and international targets to halt and reverse declines of species populations (abundances) will be measured against Multispecies Biodiversity Indicators (MSIs). Like any sample-based estimator, MSIs approximate some real-world quantity (the estimand), and the difference between the two is the ‘actual’ or realised statistical error. We propose a general estimator and [...]
Variation in successional niche turnover of multiple taxa in a recovering tropical rainforest
Published: 2025-03-26
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Understanding the niche turnover of ecological communities is fundamental for advancing successional theory and effective restoration. However, since niche preferences are known for a few taxa, ecosystem succession is only partially understood. To fill this gap, using a null model approach, we determined the niche optimal within eighteen ecological communities (bacteria, animals, and plants) [...]
Quantitative metabarcoding reveals the effects of ecological factors and invasive species on functional diversity of freshwater insects
Published: 2025-03-26
Subjects: Life Sciences
Aquatic insects represent the majority of freshwater biodiversity, yet they are less studied than other taxa. Responses of aquatic communities to stressors are rarely assessed and are usually measured in terms of taxonomic richness derived from presence-absence data, despite certain mechanisms that may cause a reduction in the biomass of certain species, without causing their disappearance. The [...]
Recovery of phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic structure in trees and animals along a chronosequence of tropical forest regeneration
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences
Tropical forests are highly threatened habitats with the capacity to recover after disturbance. Integrating phylogenies in the study of forest recovery provides key information on the evolutionary relationships of communities through succession, and also serves as a proxy of their functional trait diversity and resilience capacity. We used phylogenetic and community data for trees and animal [...]
Evolution under fluctuating conditions and exposure to heatwaves in the seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Evolution
Heatwaves, temporary periods of elevated temperatures, are increasing both in magnitude and in frequency and have been shown to have devastating negative effects on a wide range of taxa. However, to date, most studies investigating the impacts of heatwaves have either focus on populations that have evolved under constant conditions prior to assaying or, more importantly, only investigated the [...]
Leaf litter Decomposition dynamics across a Recovering Tropical Forest in the lowland Ecuadorian Chocó
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Life Sciences
Litter decomposition by arthropods, microbes, and fungi is a key ecosystem process in tropical forests, yet its response to forest disturbance and recovery remains poorly understood. To investigate decomposition dynamics across forest succession, we conducted an experiment in the Ecuadorian lowland Chocó (Esmeraldas) using a chronosequence approach. We deployed above- (AG) and belowground (BG) [...]
Quantifying macro-evolutionary patterns of trait mean and variance with phylogenetic location-scale models
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Evolution, Life Sciences
Understanding how both the mean (location) and variance (scale) of traits differ among species and lineages is fundamental to unveiling macroevolutionary patterns. Yet, traditional phylogenetic comparative methods primarily focus on modelling mean trait values, often overlooking variability and heteroscedasticity that can provide critical insights into evolutionary dynamics. Here, we introduce [...]