Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Population Biology
EcoScape: Species-specific Functional Habitat Connectivity Via Efficient Parallel Propagation Simulations
Published: 2026-08-06
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Well-connected habitats sustain viable populations through gene flow, repopulation potential, and functional habitat extent. Conserving and enhancing habitat connectivity has been identified as a priority to halt extinctions and safeguard 30% of the planet. Conservation prioritization would therefore benefit from habitat connectivity modeling that is applicable at broad spatial and taxonomic [...]
Species Traits Predict Local Population Change Above and Beyond Regional Trend
Published: 2026-07-23
Subjects: Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Why do some populations persist in the face of environmental change while others decline? We tested the extent to which variation in local population change across species is attributable to three species traits: (i) habitat selectivity, (ii) temperature niche position, and (iii) degree of insectivory, with the null hypothesis that local trends are simply a reflection of broader regional trends. [...]
Lactate Dehydrogenase as a Candidate Genomic Marker of Climate Change in Mammals?
Published: 2026-07-13
Subjects: Bioinformatics, Comparative and Evolutionary Physiology, Evolution, Genetics, Genomics, Molecular Genetics, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Climate change imposes metabolic and thermal stress on mammals, yet genomic markers that track lineage specific adaptation remain limited. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a central enzyme in lactate metabolism and anaerobic stress response, has not previously been evaluated for its evolutionary association with climate change induced selection. Here, comparative genomics across 14 mammalian species [...]
Efficient Bayesian Estimation for Open Population Capture-Recapture Models Without Data Augmentation
Published: 2026-07-09
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Natural Resources and Conservation, Population Biology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
1. Bayesian estimation of abundance with capture-recapture data has been dominated for nearly 20 years by the parameter-expansion data-augmentation (PX-DA) ap- proach. The PX-DA approach expands the parameter set to include the latent true states of the individuals. PX-DA allows straightforward coding of models in MCMC software such as JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) or nimble, however, this [...]
Estimating the density dependence of stage-specific survival and fecundity using Integrated Population Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Population Biology, Statistical Models
The density dependence of survival and reproduction parameters can change with age or stage, which is key to understand population regulation mechanisms. However, the multiplication of parameters in structured demographic models makes their estimation challenging. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide an interesting solution to this issue by combining different data sources. IPM simulation [...]
From a review to the field: Alternative coping styles under urbanisation
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Animal Sciences, Behavior and Ethology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Endocrinology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Physiology, Population Biology, Systems and Integrative Physiology Life Sciences, Zoology
Under human-induced rapid environmental changes, behavioural and physiological responses of organisms are key to maintain homeostasis and minimise fitness loss. Both responses can be integrated, into among-individual correlations forming stress-coping styles or syndromes (SCS). Such SCS emerge from genetic correlations or adaptive trade-offs. In the context of environmental challenges, more [...]
Natural history models of bird–building collisions
Published: 2026-06-25
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Building collisions kill an estimated 1.28–5.19 billion birds annually in North America, making them the second leading cause of human-related avian mortality. Yet the behavioral and ecological drivers of collisions remain difficult to disentangle, as most knowledge derives from carcass surveys rather than direct observations. Here, we propose a conceptual framework that synthesizes four natural [...]
A new computational framework for speeding up the fitting of multistate capture–mark–recapture models
Published: 2026-06-24
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
1. Multistate capture–mark–recapture (CMR) models are widely used to estimate the parameters governing demographic processes such as survival, dispersal, and recruitment in animal populations. In Bayesian analyses, the multinomial likelihood of multistate CMR models summarizes individual encounter histories into groups defined by states and capture occasions, and is regarded as a computationally [...]
A mathematical foundation of modelling thermal injury and repair dynamics in ectotherms
Published: 2026-06-18
Subjects: Animal Experimentation and Research, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Evolution, Life Sciences, Physiology, Plant Sciences, Population Biology, Research Methods in Life Sciences, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Survival Analysis
As global temperatures rise and extreme heat events impair ectotherm performance and survival, it is becoming increasingly important to predict how organisms accumulate and repair thermal injury under realistic benign and stressful temperatures. The thermal death time (TDT) model quantifies how heat events translate into thermal injury, but under natural temperature fluctuations the TDT model is [...]
Neural dynamic N-mixture model: a deep learning framework to infer demographic rates from count data
Published: 2026-06-18
Subjects: Population Biology
Changes in population abundance arise from underlying demographic processes, namely survival and recruitment, and knowledge of these two vital rates is crucial for better understanding biodiversity changes. Although demographic data based on individual encounter histories are often sparse in space and time, the dynamic N-mixture model provides an alternative by inferring survival and recruitment [...]
An integrated framework for unifying our understanding of nonconsumptive predation risk effects
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Evolution, Integrative Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Predation risk can induce risk-induced trait responses (RITRs) – changes in prey defensive traits including behavior, morphology, life history, and physiology – thought to have profound effects on prey fitness and population dynamics (termed ‘nonconsumptive effects’). Yet, predicting the magnitude of RITRs and their fitness consequences remains difficult because outcomes depend heavily on [...]
Mapping Mechanistic Modeling of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Across Migratory Flyways: A Systematic Review
Published: 2026-06-09
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Diseases, Epidemiology, Life Sciences, Population Biology, Virus Diseases
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses, particularly H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, continue to spread globally via wild migratory birds along defined flyway corridors. Mechanistic models are essential tools for understanding HPAI transmission dynamics in flyway systems. Yet the geographic distribution of such modeling efforts across migratory flyways remains unknown. To inform the global [...]
The coevolution of cooperation and socially-mediated dispersal: a model
Published: 2026-06-01
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Evolution, Population Biology
Limited dispersal can promote the evolution of cooperation by increasing relatedness between social partners. However it also intensifies kin competition, potentially cancelling the benefits of helping. Here, we analyse a model in which individuals evolve both (i) the probability of cooperating within social groups as adults, and (ii) the dispersal probability of juveniles conditional on the [...]
Methodological choices influence ecological inference in passive acoustic monitoring of a Neotropical nightjar
Published: 2026-05-29
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Biodiversity, Population Biology
Passive acoustic monitoring is increasingly used to investigate species activity and habitat use through occupancy analyses. Yet, the complex analytical workflow, from automated detector choice to confidence thresholds and statistical modeling framework, is amongst the factors that influence ecological inference, and the extent these decisions affect modelling outputs is poorly debated. Here, we [...]
A systematic review on the effectiveness of salmonid spawning habitat improvements, and recommendations to potentially increase productivity of depressed Newfoundland Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology