Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Biodiversity
Understanding the Global Report on Collective Progress in the Implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework: Purpose, Content, and Science-Policy Engagement
Published: 2026-10-14
Subjects: Biodiversity, Life Sciences
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), adopted under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), establishes four long-term 2050 goals, 23 action-oriented 2030 targets, and a standardized monitoring framework to track collective progress. The 2026 global review marks the first operational test of the Party-led planning, monitoring, reporting, and review (PMRR) mechanism, [...]
Estimated Time to Act: A Global Assessment of Biodiversity Exposure to Human Modification
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Biodiversity, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Spatial Science
Biodiversity loss is accelerating under compounding human pressures, yet most conservation tools quantify the pressure species already face, rather than when it will push them beyond the levels they have experienced. This temporal blind spot limits proactive planning, particularly under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), which sets action-oriented targets for 2030 and [...]
Spatial variation in keystone predation on foundation species drives local and landscape- scale diversity patterns
Published: 2026-10-13
Subjects: Biodiversity, Marine Biology, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
The proposition that keystone predators increase biodiversity has been criticized for failing to consider the species facilitated by, rather than outcompeted by, dominant prey. Here, we revisit the relationship between the original keystone species, Pisaster ochraceus, and the diversity of rocky intertidal communities inclusive of competitively dominant prey, competitively subordinate [...]
Large Language Models for Marine Protected Area Design and Management Planning
Published: 2026-10-12
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Natural Resources and Conservation
Achieving biodiversity targets requires advances in marine conservation planning and action. We make three arguments about large language models (LLMs): they add more value when embedded within decision-support systems; they integrate fragmented expertise, data, and tools; they can increase capacity in under-resourced settings through co-design. We illustrate these arguments with a conceptual [...]
Spatially explicit sampling of AM fungal biomass reveals links to community characteristics and landscape context
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Agriculture, Biochemistry, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are important contributors to soil functioning, yet their biomass and diversity may respond differently to environmental characteristics and historical legacies. Understanding these relationships is necessary for evaluating AM fungi as indicators of soil health. We investigated relationships among AM fungal biomass, community properties and natural habitat [...]
Amphibians and reptiles in bird nests and bird-excavated cavities: a mini review
Published: 2026-10-07
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences
Bird nests and bird-excavated cavities provide suitable environments for egg incubation and nestling development. However, bird-created structures are also exploited by a wide range of organisms, including taxa that are phylogenetically distant from the avian constructors. While birds, mammals, and invertebrates are well documented as secondary users of nests and cavities, the occurrence of [...]
Areas of high conservation priority for threatened terrestrial vertebrates are governed by novel ecological conditions
Published: 2026-10-07
Subjects: Biodiversity, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Over half of the terrestrial biosphere is exposed to highly novel conditions that differ from the historical state, resulting from anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, floristic disruption, and defaunation. Highly novel conditions result in unpredictable biodiversity outcomes, impacting the effectiveness of conservation and restoration actions and the ability for threatened species to [...]
Reframing Mangroves as Socio-Ecological Coastal Infrastructure: Development and Application of a Six-Pillar Socio-Ecological Infrastructure Framework
Published: 2026-10-05
Subjects: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Other Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mangrove ecosystems are critical components of coastal socio-ecological systems, providing shoreline protection, biodiversity support, carbon sequestration, and livelihood opportunities for coastal communities. However, increasing pressures from climate change, coastal development, and environmental degradation threaten their resilience and long-term sustainability. This study proposes a [...]
Probabilistic projections of human modification of the terrestrial biosphere from 2020 to 2040
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Biodiversity, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Natural Resources and Conservation, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Conservation actions are more effective when they anticipate future threats rather than respond only after loss occurs. Most spatial forecasts focus only on land-cover change and fail to capture the broader set of pressures that degrade biodiversity. To close this gap, we develop global probabilistic forecasts of cumulative human modification (HM), a continuous measure that combines 16 [...]
Nonlinear survey-effort adjustment removes the reported bird-diversity effect
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Animal Sciences, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences
A recent study published in Science reported that greater photovoltaic policy stringency (PSI) was associated with lower Shannon diversity, lower Simpson diversity, lower species richness, and slightly higher species evenness in China. We exactly reproduced their published model and then evaluated seven alternative survey-effort specifications across Richness, Shannon diversity, Simpson [...]
Evenness under incomplete sampling: coupled error channels, hidden compensation, and the richness-estimation bottleneck
Published: 2026-09-28
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
1. Normalized evenness combines an abundance-diversity functional with richness, so incomplete sampling acts through two coupled errors. For \(E_{\alpha,\beta}=L_\beta(D_\alpha)/L_\beta(S)\), the log-error decomposes exactly as \(T_\beta=U_\beta+V_\beta\). With observed richness, \(V_\beta\) is nonnegative whenever species are missed, but total error can have either sign. 2. We generated 950,100 [...]
On the Promise (and Practice) of Deep Comparative Methods: Expressivity, Limitations, and Design
Published: 2026-09-28
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Evolution
Comparative biologists explain the diversity of organismal form and function by deciding which traits to measure and which evolutionary processes to model. These decisions make inference possible, but they also confine it to traits, relationships, and processes that can be specified a priori. Neural networks can expand this space, learning characters directly from complex observations and [...]
Building from biodiversity assessment to place-based conservation action across scales of information and governance.
Published: 2026-09-28
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Scientific assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services are challenged by the need to examine systemic drivers of change while maintaining support in a polarized political climate. Recent US national policy shifts that reduce federal support for scientific assessments underscore the necessity of a broad-based, resilient, and scalable assessment framework with sustained engagement of [...]
Aligning evidence and action: The Research-to-Decision (RED) Framework to address modern environmental and ecological challenges
Published: 2026-09-28
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biodiversity, Databases and Information Systems, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Models and Methods, Multivariate Analysis, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Ecological and biodiversity crises are intensifying amid rapid advances in sensing, computation, and artificial intelligence (AI). AI offers unprecedented capabilities to understand complex ecological systems, provided outputs are interpretable, applied responsibly, and evaluated by domain experts. When addressing key challenges, science-policy frictions arise through different requirements [...]
Why nature cannot be replaced: the limits of substitution in biodiversity conservation
Published: 2026-09-25
Subjects: Biodiversity
Contemporary conservation governance increasingly relies on biodiversity offsetting and related instruments that seek to compensate ecological losses from development projects through metric-based equivalence and No Net Loss accounting. In their dominant policy form, these approaches treat biodiversity as substitutable: damage at one site is rendered acceptable if equivalent gains are generated [...]