Mapping hunting probability across the tropics in space and time

Martin Philippe-Lesaffre, Iago Ferreiro-Arias, Jedediah F. Brodie, Dominik Schüßler, Laura Maeso-Pueyo, Ana Benítez-López¹

Hunting is a major driver of global species extinctions, yet the spatial footprint and

temporal trends of this threat are lacking at the global scale, limiting our ability to achieve

international policy targets. Here, we present standardized global maps of hunting

probability across the tropics, based on a machine learning algorithm trained on 2,463

hunted and non-hunted tropical sites, spatially and temporally matched to ecological and

socio-economic predictors. We estimate the spatial footprint of hunting extends across

the entire pantropical zone, with distinct hotspots of high predicted hunting occurrence

probability in the Indomalayan realm (e.g., China, Sri Lanka, Western India), the Brazilian

Atlantic Forest, and parts of West Africa. Refuges from hunting persist in remote areas of

interior Borneo, Papua New Guinea, Central Africa, and the western Amazon. Enhanced

human accessibility has facilitated the geographic expansion of hunting from 2000-2015,

most notably in regions historically considered undisturbed and remote such as the

Amazon basin, and in areas already facing high pressure such as China and Indonesia.

Spatio-temporal dynamics also varied among realms. Our standardized spatio-temporal

assessment provides a blueprint to inform conservation, supporting targeted

management actions and informed policy interventions to mitigate hunting impacts.