Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Virus Diseases
Solving the “small outbreak problem” in climate epidemiology
Published: 2024-01-04
Subjects: Climate, Diseases, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Entomology, Environmental Public Health, Epidemiology, Life Sciences, Microbiology, Parasitic Diseases, Public Health, Virus Diseases
Climate change can cause outbreaks of infectious diseases in unfamiliar locations — but how do we know which unusual outbreaks are the result of climate change? Scientists often hesitate to guess, leaving the task to journalists or the public. All of these audiences would benefit from a clear and consistent framework for thinking about causality, especially in situations where outbreaks are too [...]
Inferring the seasonal dynamics and abundance of an invasive species using a spatio-temporal stacked machine learning model
Published: 2023-12-22
Subjects: Biology, Entomology, Life Sciences, Population Biology, Public Health, Virus Diseases
Various modelling techniques are available to understand the temporal and spatial variations of the phenology of species. Scientists often rely on correlative models, which establish a statistical relationship between a response variable (such as species abundance or presence-absence) and a set of predominantly abiotic covariates. The modelling approach choice, i.e. the algorithm, is a crucial [...]
Evolution of new variants of SARS-COV-2 during the pandemic: mutation limited or selection limited?
Published: 2022-09-23
Subjects: Diseases, Medicine and Health Sciences, Virus Diseases
The recent pandemic caused by SARS-Cov-2 has witnessed an evolving succession of variants of the virus. While the phenomenon of invasion by immunity evading variants is known for other viruses such as influenza, the dynamics of the ecological and evolutionary process in the succession is little known. Since during the Covid-19 pandemic, large scale epidemiological data were collected and made [...]
COVID-19 through the One Health lens: adding a missing perspective
Published: 2021-03-22
Subjects: Diseases, Immunology and Infectious Disease, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Parasitology, Virus Diseases
The One Health concept offers an integrative approach to disease and health at the human-animal-environment interface. It has often been suggested to view the COVID-19 outbreak within this framework to better understand and mitigate this global crisis. Here, we discuss how the evolutionary ecology of host-pathogen systems can add a valuable additional perspective to the debate around SARS-CoV-2 [...]