Christopher Baker, Michael Bode

The eradication of invasive species from islands is an important part of managing these ecologically unique and at-risk regions. Island eradications are complex projects and mathematical models play an important role in supporting efficient and transparent decision-making. In this review we cover the past applications of modelling to island eradications, which range from large-scale prioritisations across groups of islands, to project-level decision-making tools. While quantitative models have been formulated and parameterised for a range of important problems, there are also critical research gaps. Many applications of quantitative modelling lack uncertainty analyses, and are therefore over-confident. Forecasting the ecosystem-wide impacts of species eradications is still extremely challenging, despite recent progress in the field. Overall, the field of quantitative modelling is well-developed for island eradication planning. Multiple practical modelling tools are available for, and are being applied to, a diverse suite of important decisions, and quantitative modelling is well-placed to address pressing issues in the field.