Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Applied Statistics
On the spatial aggregation of condition metrics for ecosystem accounting
Published: 2025-12-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Other Life Sciences
In face of the ongoing nature crisis, the international community is setting targets and deciding on actions to combat the current biodiversity crises. For this to be effective they need tools to accurately describe the current situation and to monitor trends in ecosystems over time. Ecosystem condition accounts (ECA) is one such tool that use variables and indicators to describe key ecosystem [...]
Towards a causal understanding of bidirectional effects in ecology and evolution
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biostatistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series
Feedback loops govern many processes in the natural world and are ubiquitous in ecology and evolutionary biology. Despite their prevalence in theory, however, feedbacks and other forms of reciprocal causation are rarely quantified by empiricists working with observational datasets. This divide has been brought to the fore by the causal revolution in the natural sciences. When researchers aim to [...]
Dispersion tests in generalised linear mixed-effects models - a methods comparison and practical guide
Published: 2025-11-14
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistical Models
1. Underdispersion and overdispersion are common issues when analysing ecological data with generalised linear (mixed) models (GLMs/GLMMs). Overdispersion, the phenomenon where observations spread wider than expected by the fitted model, leads to anti-conservative p-values and, thus, to inflated type I error. In contrast, underdispersion, a narrower spread of the data than expected, causes overly [...]
Prompting large language models for quality ecological statistics
Published: 2025-06-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biostatistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming scientific workflows, including statistical analyses in ecological sciences. While these AI tools offer impressive capabilities for code generation and analytical guidance, evaluations reveal significant limitations in their reasoning for standard statistical tests. Ecological statistics typically require special consideration due to spatial [...]
Generalized graphical mixed models connect ecological theory with widely used statistical models
Published: 2025-06-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Aquaculture and Fisheries Life Sciences, Biodiversity, Environmental Sciences, Multivariate Analysis
Ecological dynamics are analyzed across multiple sites, times, and variables. Here, we introduce the family of generalized graphical mixed models (GGMMs) and show that it extends structural equation, generalized additive, and generalized linear mixed models. GGMMs represent ecological systems using a mathematical graph, where each analytic unit (node for each site-time-variable) has a direct [...]
Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research
Published: 2025-06-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistical Methodology
In ecology, causal questions are ubiquitous, yet the literature describing systematic approaches to answering these questions is vast and fragmented across different traditions (e.g., randomization, structural equation modeling, convergent cross mapping). In our Perspective, we connect the causal assumptions, tasks, frameworks, and methods across these traditions, thereby providing a synthesis of [...]
Modelling approaches for meta-analyses with dependent effect sizes in ecology and evolution: A simulation study
Published: 2025-04-08
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistical Methodology
In ecology and evolution, meta-analysis is an important tool to synthesise findings across separate studies and identify sources of heterogeneity. However, ecological and evolutionary data often exhibit complex dependence structures, such as shared sources of variation within studies, phylogenetic relationships, and hierarchical sampling designs. Recent statistical advancements offer approaches [...]
New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application
Published: 2024-11-25
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Population Biology, Systems Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We [...]
Adaptive sampling for ecological monitoring using biased data: A stratum-based approach
Published: 2024-09-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Indicators of biodiversity change across large extents of geographic, temporal and taxonomic space are frequent products of various types of ecological monitoring and other data collection efforts. Unfortunately, many such indicators are based on data that are highly unlikely to be representative of the intended statistical populations. Where there is full control over sampling processes, [...]
An integrated population modelling workflow for supporting mesopredator management
Published: 2024-08-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Biostatistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Natural Resources and Conservation, Population Biology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Survival Analysis, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology, Zoology
Expanding populations of mesopredators threaten biodiversity and human health in many ecosystems across the world. Lethal control through harvest is commonly implemented as a mitigation measure, yet its effects on mesopredator population dynamics in interaction with compensatory mechanisms and environmental conditions has rarely been assessed quantitatively due to data constraints. Recent [...]
Designing causal mediation analyses to quantify intermediary processes in ecology
Published: 2024-05-13
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistical Methodology
Ecologists seek to understand the intermediary ecological processes through which changes in one attribute in a system affect other attributes. A causal understanding of mediating processes is important for testing theory and developing resource management and conservation strategies. Yet, quantifying the causal effects of these mediating processes in ecological systems is challenging, because it [...]
Large-scale spatio-temporal variation in vital rates and population dynamics of an alpine bird
Published: 2024-02-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology, Statistical Models
Quantifying temporal and spatial variation in animal population size and demography is a central theme in ecological research and important for directing management and policy. However, this requires field sampling at large spatial extents and over long periods of time, which is not only prohibitively costly but often politically untenable. Participatory monitoring programs (also called citizen [...]
A big data and machine learning approach for monitoring the condition of ecosystems
Published: 2024-01-16
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Forest Biology, Forest Sciences, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Ecosystems are highly valuable as a source of goods and services and as a heritage for future generations. Knowing their condition is extremely important for all management and conservation activities and public policies. Until now, the evaluation of ecosystem condition has been unsatisfactory and thus lacks practical implementation for most countries. We propose that ecosystem integrity is a [...]
Multimodel approaches are not the best way to understand multifactorial systems
Published: 2023-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Information-theoretic (IT) and multi-model averaging (MMA) statistical approaches are widely used but suboptimal tools for pursuing a multifactorial approach (also known as the method of multiple working hypotheses) in ecology. (1) Conceptually, IT encourages ecologists to perform tests on sets of artificial models. (2) MMA improves on IT model selection by implementing a simple form of [...]
The missing link: discerning true from false negatives when sampling species interaction networks
Published: 2023-01-18
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Monitoring
Ecosystems are composed of networks of interacting species. These interactions allow communities of species to persist through time through both neutral and adaptive processes. Despite their importance, a robust understanding of (and ability to predict and forecast) interactions among species remains elusive. This knowledge-gap is largely driven by a shortfall of data—although species occurrence [...]