Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Population Biology
Why abundance-based indices of niche breadth are biased, and what can be done to improve them
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Niche breadth is a central concept in ecology, and species with narrow niche breadth are believed to be more sensitive to anthropogenic factors than species with broad niche breadth. A myriad of methods to assess niche breadth have been suggested, many of them reliant on estimates of relative abundance (e.g., across habitats). We show, using both simulations and empirical data, that due to [...]
Acoustic Vector Sensing of Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Occupancy off Central California
Published: 2026-09-15
Subjects: Population Biology
Temporally varying geographic distributions of whale populations are difficult to visually monitor across large marine ecosystems. Acoustic vector sensing (AVS) of the powerful calls produced by baleen whales enables continuous monitoring over large areas with spatial information contained in the bearing estimates to whales. Using three years of AVS data in Monterey Bay National Marine [...]
Behavioural strategy and predator control: a coupled evolutionary predator-prey model for kiwi conservation in New Zealand
Published: 2026-09-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Behavior and Ethology, Dynamic Systems, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Population Biology
Conservation management of endangered species can be enhanced by quantitative frameworks that simultaneously model behavioural adaptations alongside population dynamics. This paper presents a Coupled Evolutionary Predator-Prey Model (CEPPM) that integrates replicator dynamics from Evolutionary Game Theory with an extended Lotka-Volterra predator-prey framework, applied to kiwi (Apteryx spp.) [...]
Allee effects in corals during fertilisation
Published: 2026-09-09
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Population Biology
Allee effects – where individual fitness declines at low population densities or sizes – are pivotal in shaping the reproductive ecology of broadcast-spawning corals. In these species, successful external fertilisation requires that gametes remain at sufficiently high concentrations for long enough periods before turbulent water movement disperses them below fertilisable levels. As reefs degrade [...]
Socioeconomic policy and large mature trees are vital for moor macaque (Macaca maura) conservation in anthropogenically-modified landscapes
Published: 2026-09-01
Subjects: Biodiversity, Energy Policy, Environmental Law, Environmental Policy, Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation, Population Biology, Zoology
Despite conservation efforts, intensifying anthropogenic pressure is transforming tropical forests into anthropogenically-dominated landscapes. We investigated how current anthropogenic pressure and socioeconomic-climate policies influence tropical forest ecology, using the Endangered moor macaque (Macaca maura) in southwestern Sulawesi, Indonesia, as an example species. Deploying camera traps [...]
Q&A: Genetic Lineages
Published: 2026-09-01
Subjects: Evolution, Genetics, Population Biology
Genetic lineages are key to understanding evolution in complex scenarios and the evolution of genetic systems. However, they are often misunderstood; for example, confused with alleles or pedigrees. Here, we provide an accessible introduction to genetic lineages in question and answer format, from their definition as a physical object in space-time to their empirical characterization through [...]
The Cohort Net Reproductive Rate: an empirically grounded approach to R0 for structured populations and epidemics
Published: 2026-08-27
Subjects: Immunology and Infectious Disease, Life Sciences, Population Biology
The net reproductive rate, or per-generation population growth rate R0, is a key concept for population and epidemic dynamics, because persistence versus extinction is often determined by the sign of R0−1. Because it is defined as generation-to-generation growth, it is hard to assess empirically for structured populations or epidemics where generations overlap, and is usually estimated by [...]
Reproduction is more sensitive to warming than adult lifespan across invertebrates
Published: 2026-08-11
Subjects: Animal Sciences, Biodiversity, Entomology, Life Sciences, Population Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Studies estimating the effect of temperature on wild animal populations typically focus on survival as a proxy for population health. However, high and low temperatures can also negatively influence animal reproduction, and recent work suggests that the thermal sensitivity of reproduction is more important for population persistence that the thermal sensitivity of survival in some species groups. [...]
EcoScape: Species-specific Functional Habitat Connectivity Via Efficient Parallel Propagation Simulations
Published: 2026-08-07
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Well-connected habitats sustain viable populations through gene flow, repopulation potential, and functional habitat extent. Conserving and enhancing habitat connectivity has been identified as a priority to halt extinctions and safeguard 30% of the planet. Conservation prioritization would therefore benefit from habitat connectivity modeling that is applicable at broad spatial and taxonomic [...]
Species Traits Predict Local Population Change Above and Beyond Regional Trend
Published: 2026-07-23
Subjects: Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Why do some populations persist in the face of environmental change while others decline? We tested the extent to which variation in local population change across species is attributable to three species traits: (i) habitat selectivity, (ii) temperature niche position, and (iii) degree of insectivory, with the null hypothesis that local trends are simply a reflection of broader regional trends. [...]
Lactate Dehydrogenase as a Candidate Genomic Marker of Climate Change in Mammals?
Published: 2026-07-13
Subjects: Bioinformatics, Comparative and Evolutionary Physiology, Evolution, Genetics, Genomics, Molecular Genetics, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology
Climate change imposes metabolic and thermal stress on mammals, yet genomic markers that track lineage specific adaptation remain limited. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a central enzyme in lactate metabolism and anaerobic stress response, has not previously been evaluated for its evolutionary association with climate change induced selection. Here, comparative genomics across 14 mammalian species [...]
Efficient Bayesian Estimation for Open Population Capture-Recapture Models Without Data Augmentation
Published: 2026-07-09
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Natural Resources and Conservation, Population Biology, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
1. Bayesian estimation of abundance with capture-recapture data has been dominated for nearly 20 years by the parameter-expansion data-augmentation (PX-DA) ap- proach. The PX-DA approach expands the parameter set to include the latent true states of the individuals. PX-DA allows straightforward coding of models in MCMC software such as JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) or nimble, however, this [...]
Estimating the density dependence of stage-specific survival and fecundity using Integrated Population Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Population Biology, Statistical Models
The density dependence of survival and reproduction parameters can change with age or stage, which is key to understand population regulation mechanisms. However, the multiplication of parameters in structured demographic models makes their estimation challenging. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide an interesting solution to this issue by combining different data sources. IPM simulation [...]
From a review to the field: Alternative coping styles under urbanisation
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Animal Sciences, Behavior and Ethology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Endocrinology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Physiology, Population Biology, Systems and Integrative Physiology Life Sciences, Zoology
Under human-induced rapid environmental changes, behavioural and physiological responses of organisms are key to maintain homeostasis and minimise fitness loss. Both responses can be integrated, into among-individual correlations forming stress-coping styles or syndromes (SCS). Such SCS emerge from genetic correlations or adaptive trade-offs. In the context of environmental challenges, more [...]
Natural history models of bird–building collisions
Published: 2026-06-25
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Population Biology, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Building collisions kill an estimated 1.28–5.19 billion birds annually in North America, making them the second leading cause of human-related avian mortality. Yet the behavioral and ecological drivers of collisions remain difficult to disentangle, as most knowledge derives from carcass surveys rather than direct observations. Here, we propose a conceptual framework that synthesizes four natural [...]