A systems-modelling approach to predict biological responses to extreme heat

Daniel W.A. Noble, Margie Mayfield, Ary A Hoffmann, Zhong-Hua Chen, Steven Lade, Xuemei Bai, Danielle Way , Belinda E. Medlyn, Owen Atkin, Adrienne Nicotra, James Cook, Brajesh K Singh, Alison Bentley, Ian Wright, Michael R. Kearney

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to more frequent and extreme heat waves. These short-term but large-scale events are radically re-shaping interactions among organisms – impacting biodiversity, community composition and ecosystem services crucial to natural systems and food security. Predicting heat wave impacts on interacting species requires an understanding of the processes driving differential exposure and sensitivity of organisms to extreme heat events in a life-cycle context. To achieve this predictive capacity, we need to integrate models across scales while capturing species-specific responses at the level of individuals. We show how existing models in disparate fields can be linked to achieve a level of understanding necessary for calculated responses to extreme heat from individuals to socioecological systems, now and into the future.