Multidimensional microclimate velocities alter the picture of shifting climates in tropical forests

Lydia G Soifer , James Ball, Hamish Asmath, Ilya MacLean, David Coomes

Climate velocity—the speed and direction species must move to track climate change—is often estimated without accounting for vegetation-driven microclimatic variation. Using airborne lidar data from a tropical montane rainforest, we generated high-resolution 3D maps of topography and canopy structure to mechanistically model near-ground and within-canopy microclimates. Microclimate-derived temperature velocities were slower, revealing reduced dispersal demands. For terrestrial species, fine-scale maximum temperature velocities were frequently oriented toward dense vegetation patches in addition to higher elevations, contrasting traditional macroclimate-based predictions. Arboreal organisms could further reduce velocities by moving vertically within the canopy to cooler microhabitats, highlighting the role of 3D habitat structure in mitigating exposure. These results demonstrate that vegetation complexity creates localized microrefugia, enabling species persistence under warming by altering both the magnitude and direction of required range shifts. Our findings emphasize the need to integrate fine-scale habitat heterogeneity into climate resilience strategies to more accurately forecast biodiversity responses.