Predicting high pathogenicity avian influenza H5N1 susceptibility in wild birds

Sara Ryding, Tobias A Ross, Marcel Klaassen

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) has caused widespread sickness and mortality in wildlife, especially since the emergence of a novel H5 virus belonging to clade 2.3.4.4b in 2021. The ongoing panzootic caused by this lineage has infected an unprecedented diversity of species across the globe, seeming capable of impacting all birds. Here, we analyse ecological and phylogenetic patterns in outbreak notifications of HPAI, and predict host susceptibility to HPAI for Australia as the only continent thus far unaffected by this panzootic. We found a significant family-level phylogenetic signal, showcasing that the panzootic is not impacting all birds equally, but ecological traits did not improve predictive power. Using the family-level phylogeny, we predict that families of Australian seabirds, shorebirds, and waterbirds will be most susceptible to HPAI once it arrives on the continent. Our results provide an empirical indication of species susceptible to HPAI H5N1, which can be used to direct monitoring efforts and disease management globally. With special reference to Australia, our predictions can be used alongside conservation status and species-specific information to inform preparedness activities, monitoring, and response upon incursion.