Mapping the potential risk of coronavirus spillovers in South and Southeast Asia

Ralph Sedricke Lapuz , Ada Chornelia, Alice Hughes

Bats harbor approximately a third of known mammal viruses, including recent coronaviruses that caused pandemics. As spillover risk increases due to habitat loss and fragmentation, utilizing a OneHealth approach, we identified potential zoonotic spillover and pandemic risk hotspots in South and Southeast Asia. We used a model that estimates the risk of infectious disease emergence by incorporating Rhinolophid bat species distribution, forest fragmentation, and human population density data. Results showed that spillover risk hotspots are concentrated in Indochina and southern China, where species richness and fragmentation are high, and where coronaviruses were previously detected in bat populations. Simulation of pandemic spread from the spillover risk hotspots using network models revealed risk hotspots clustered in Bangladesh and northeast India. These results highlight the regional vulnerability of human population centers and heightened risks from habitat fragmentation. Our work emphasizes a multidisciplinary approach to safeguard public health and ecosystems by identifying hotspots, advocating for mitigation measures, and enhancing surveillance in vulnerable regions.