Pattern-Informed Energetics: Inferring energy allocation and the emergence of life‑history strategies​

Cara A. Gallagher , Viktoriia Radchuk, Melanie Dammhahn, Florian Jeltsch

Energy allocation among survival, growth, and reproduction is central to population dynamics, yet remains difficult to quantify directly. Traditional models often rely on fixed rules or optimization assumptions that may not capture real-world variability. We introduce Pattern‑Informed Energetics (PIE), a framework that infers allocation strategies from empirical data using inverse parameterization. We applied PIE at two scales: a cross-species study of six mammals spanning a 1,000-fold mass range and a spatially explicit population model of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). Cross-species results revealed strong allometric scaling in allocation midpoints, with larger mammals shifting energy to growth and reproduction at higher body conditions. In the bank vole model, PIE reproduced complex field and experimental patterns, including seasonal dynamics and the effects of litter manipulation on reproductive costs and maternal survival. While life-history patterns effectively constrained allocation midpoints, the steepness of the energetic response was more difficult to infer, highlighting specific data needs for future studies. PIE provides a flexible, transparent approach to bioenergetic modeling, quantifying uncertainty and revealing how evolved life-history strategies emerge from energetic constraints, thereby improving predictions of species’ responses to environmental change.