Extreme events drive rapid and dynamic range fluctuations

Lydia G Soifer , Julie L Lockwood, Jonas J Lembrechts , Laura H Antão, David Klinges, Rebecca A Senior, Natalie Ban, Birgitta Evengard, Belen Fadrique, Sophie Falkeis, Alexa Fredston , Robert Guralnick, Jonathan Lenoir , Montague Neate-Clegg, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Gretta Pecl, Malin Pinsky, Jennifer Smith, Beth Stys, Morgan Tingley, Brett Scheffers

Climate change is altering species’ distributions globally. Increasing frequency of extreme weather and climate events (EWCEs) is one of the hallmarks of climate change. Despite species redistribution being widely studied in response to longer-term climate trends, the contribution of EWCEs to range shifts is not well understood. We outline how EWCEs can trigger rapid and unexpected range boundary fluctuations by impacting dispersal, establishment, and survival. Whether these mechanisms cause temporary or persistent range shifts depends on the spatiotemporal context and exposure to EWCEs. Using the increasing availability of data and statistical tools to examine EWCE impacts at fine spatiotemporal scales on species redistribution will be critical for informing conservation management of ecologically, economically, and culturally important species.