Foundations and future directions for causal inference in ecological research

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. This is version 2 of this Preprint.

Add a Comment

You must log in to post a comment.


Comments

There are no comments or no comments have been made public for this article.

Downloads

Download Preprint

Supplementary Files
Authors

Katherine Johannet Siegel, Laura E Dee

Abstract

Ecology often seeks to answer causal questions, and while ecologists have a rich history of experimental approaches, novel observational data streams and the need to apply insights across naturally occurring conditions pose opportunities and challenges. Other fields have developed causal inference approaches that can enhance and expand our ability to answer ecological causal questions using observational or experimental data. However, the lack of comprehensive resources applying causal inference to ecological settings and jargon from multiple disciplines create barriers. We introduce approaches for causal inference, discussing the main frameworks for counterfactual causal inference, how causal inference differs from other research aims, and key challenges; application of causal inference in experimental and quasi-experimental study designs; appropriate interpretation of the results of causal inference approaches given their assumptions and biases; foundational papers; and the data requirements and trade-offs between internal and external validity posed by different designs. We highlight that these designs generally prioritize internal validity over generalizability. Finally, we identify opportunities and considerations for ecologists to further integrate causal inference with synthesis science and meta-analysis and expand the spatiotemporal scales at which causal inference is possible. We advocate for ecology as a field to collectively define best practices for causal inference.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.32942/X2MM0D

Subjects

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

Keywords

causal analysis, study design, observational data, statistical ecology, potential outcomes framework, structural causal model, counterfactual, synthesis science, big data

Dates

Published: 2024-12-12 23:41

Older Versions
License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Language:
English

Conflict of interest statement:
None

Data and Code Availability Statement:
Data used for the tutorials in the Supporting Information are available at 1) https://github.com/katherinesiegel/intro_causal_inf, along with accompanying code, and 2) the Open Science Framework at DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/3XVQG.