Catherine S Jarnevich, Sarah Carter, Andrea Chavez, Paige Handley, Charles Hayes, Brandon Hays, Cameron Reimer, Samantha Reiss, Erika Rowe, Katie Sandbom, Sarah Whipple

Land managers and conservation practitioners need practical tools to protect rare species in light of rapidly changing climate and land use patterns. Habitat suitability models are tools that can inform multiple-use land management decisions and target conservation actions. The narrow endemic Zuni fleabane, Erigeron rhizomatus, occurs on lands managed for multiple uses and was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1985 due to the main threat of surface mining. Despite intermittent surveys in recent decades, managers still do not have a comprehensive understanding of suitable habitat characteristics or the geographic extent of suitable habitat across its range. We developed and field-validated a habitat suitability model for Zuni fleabane using an iterative, ensemble approach. We tested the null hypothesis that the model would not identify major new populations outside the known range but rather assist in refining the boundaries of known suitable habitat. We also set out to improve our understanding of biotic and abiotic characteristics that define suitable habitat across geographically distant metapopulations. Our model identified areas with low, medium, high, and very high probability of containing suitable habitat. We identified a new metapopulation beyond the three known (disproving our null hypothesis) as well as additional suitable habitat within the previously known regions. This model predicts where Zuni fleabane habitat likely occurs and may help land managers and conservation practitioners identify new populations, survey habitat at fine scales, avoid impacts from multiple-use management activities, and recover this threatened species.