Roshan Sharma, Bhagawat Rimal, Bikash Ghimire

Ecosystem services are crucial for human well-being as it offers benefits such as food production, water purification, and climate regulation. However, land use change caused by rapid urban expansion poses a significant threat to these services. We investigate the impact of urbanization on ecosystem services in the Kathmandu Valley, a region experiencing intense urban growth. We assessed changes in urban areas and their effects on four key ecosystem services: air quality regulation, carbon storage, food production, and habitat quality. We utilise historical and projected land use data from 2008 to 2032, and different socio-economic and geographical data. The future land use projection shows an increase in urban areas, from 97 km2 in 2008 to 231 km2 by 2032, a growth by 140% within a 24-year period. Majority of this conversion comes from cropland. This urban expansion results in a significant decline in ESs, particularly in food production and habitat quality. We project that by 2032, food production will decrease by 19%, habitat quality by 16%, air quality regulation by 5%, and carbon storage by 3%. Our analysis shows there is an urgent need for sustainable urban planning to balance development with the conservation of important ESs.