Understanding deforestation dynamics in Amazonian protected areas through land-use change models informed by conservation discourses

Katherine Johannet Siegel, Megan Mills-Novoa, Eva Kinnebrew, Jose Ochoa-Brito, Elizabeth Shoffner

The Amazon Basin’s agricultural frontiers – many of which overlap with protected areas (PAs) – experience deforestation for agriculture and pasture. Responses to PA deforestation require understanding the region-wide and PA-specific socio-environmental factors that increase forest conversion. Standard, quantitative approaches to land-use change (LUC) modeling may omit some factors, constraining understandings of and responses to deforestation. Dominant discourses about deforestation – promoted by government and conservation organizations – also shape deforestation responses. We integrated quantitative and qualitative analysis of deforestation dynamics into LUC models of three Amazonian PA complexes (Brazil’s Jamanxim National Forest, Bolivia’s Amboró and Carrasco National Parks, and Peru’s Tambopata National Reserve and Bahuaja-Sonene National Park) to understand 1) the ability of conservation discourses to inform deforestation models and 2) region-wide and site-level factors related to deforestation. Our integrative methodology yielded better model performance than standard LUC modeling. From 2008-2018, forests on steeper slopes with higher population densities were less likely to convert, while forests surrounded by non-forest and closer to agriculture and fires had increased deforestation. Legal threats to Jamanxim’s status increased deforestation likelihood, while in Amboró and Carrasco, payments for ecosystem services projects were associated with decreased deforestation. While dominant discourses sometimes aligned with LUC models’ results (e.g., fires and increased deforestation), some factors commonly cited in deforestation discourses were not supported (e.g., REDD+ projects). Our results can inform forest management in our study sites and Amazon-wide, and emphasize the need for integrative approaches to operationalizing discourses in conservation science and practice, as the framing of deforestation shapes management responses.