Waqar Ahmed, Shalini Dhyani, Ena Suarez

Mangroves of the Western India and Pakistan is a regional ecosystem subgroup (level 4 unit of the IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology). It includes the marine ecoregions of Western India and Pakistan. According to global data the Western India and Pakistan mangrove province mapped extent in 2020 was 1625.3 km2, representing 1.1% of the global mangrove area, while national and regional studies estimated it at 2,991 km². The biota is characterized by 20 species of true mangroves and 180 associated plant and animal species.
There are multiple threats to mangroves in this province: degradation leading to deforestation caused by over-harvesting of mangroves for timber, fuelwood and fodder for camels and cattle, or from direct grazing by livestock; conversion of mangroves for coastal industrial or urban development; coastal pollution; and in Gujarat mangrove conversion to salt pans. There are also increasing threats to mangroves from lack of freshwater and climate change in the form of higher temperatures, sea-level rise and more frequent and severe cyclonic storms.
Today, the Western India and Pakistan mangroves cover ≈ 30 – 60 % less than our broad estimation for 1970. However, the net area of mangroves has decreased by 10.9% since 1996, according to global data. National and regional studies indicate that mangrove areas in Western India and Pakistan have increased by 170% from 1990 to 2020, with a projected increase of 280% by 2040. Under a high sea-level rise scenario (IPCC RCP8.5) ≈-1.5% of the Western India and Pakistan mangroves would be submerged by 2060. Moreover, 3.4% of the province’s mangrove ecosystem is undergoing degradation, with the potential to increase to 9.9% within a 50-year period, based on a vegetation index decay analysis. These results should be interpreted with caution, as they are based on global datasets (underestimated) and not on national or regional estimations of the actual extent of the mangrove ecosystem for 2020. Overall, the Western India and Pakistan mangrove ecosystem is assessed as Vulnerable (VU).