Robert M. Mark Ewers, Jacob Cook, Olivia Daniel, David Orme, Vivienne Groner, Jaideep Joshi, Anna Rallings, Taran Rallings, Priyanga Amarasekare

The myriad interactions among individual plants, animals, microbes and their abiotic environment generate emergent phenomena that will determine the future of life on Earth. Here, we argue that holistic ecosystem models – incorporating key biological domains and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic processes – capable of predicting emergent phenomena are required if we are to understand the functioning of complex, terrestrial ecosystems in a rapidly changing planet. We argue that holistic ecosystem models will provide a framework for integrating the many approaches used to study ecosystems, including biodiversity science, population and community ecology, soil science, biogeochemistry, hydrology and climatology. Holistic models will provide new insights into the nature and importance of feedbacks that cut across scales of space and time, and that connect ecosystem domains such as microbes and animals or above and below ground. They will allow us to critically examine the origins and maintenance of ecosystem stability, resilience and sustainability through the lens of systems theory, and provide a much-needed boost for conservation and the management of natural environments. We outline our approach to developing a holistic ecosystem model – the Virtual Ecosystem – and argue that while the construction of such complex models is obviously ambitious, it is both feasible and necessary.