Christopher Doughty, Camille Gaillard , Patrick Burns, Yadvinder Malhi, David Minor, Alexander Shenkin, Jesus Aguirre-Gutierrez, Laura Duncanson, Scott Goetz, hao tang

Improving tropical forest biomass predictions can accurately value tropical forests for their ecosystem services and establish confidence in carbon trading schemes such as REDD+. Optical remote sensing estimates of tropical forest biomass have produced spatially contradictory results that differ from ground plot biomass data. Recently, the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar was activated on the international space station (ISS) to improve biomass predictions by providing detailed 3D forest structure and height data. However, there is still debate on how best to predict tropical forest biomass using GEDI data. Here we compare GEDI predicted biomass to 2,102 tropical forest biomass plots and find that adding a remotely sensed (RS) trait map of LMA (Leaf Mass per Area) significantly (P<0.001) improves field biomass predictions, but by only a small amount (r2=0.01). However, it may also help reduce the bias of the residuals because, for instance, there was a negative relationship between both LMA (r2 of 0.34) and % P (r2=0.31) and residuals. This improvement in predictability corresponds with measurements from 523 individual trees where LMA predicts Diameter at Breast height (DBH) (the critical measurement underlying plot biomass) with an r2=0.04, and spectroscopy (400-1075 nm) predicts DBH with an r2=0.01. Adding environmental datasets may offer further improvements and max temperature (Tmax) predicts Amazonian biomass residuals with an r2 of 0.76 (N=66). Finally, for a network of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP) plots (N=21), RS traits are better at predicting fluxes than structure variables like tree height or Height Of Median Energy (HOME). Overall, trait maps, especially future improved ones produced by surface biology geology (SBG), may improve biomass and carbon flux predictions by a small but significant amount.