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Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

Vulnerability of amphibians to global warming

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08665-0. This is version 5 of this Preprint.

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Authors

Patrice Pottier , Michael R. Kearney, Nicholas C Wu , Alex R. Gunderson, Julie E. Rej, A. Nayelli Rivera-Villanueva, Pietro Pollo, Samantha Burke, Szymon Marian Drobniak, Shinichi Nakagawa

Abstract

Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, yet their resilience to rising temperatures remains poorly understood1,2. This is primarily because knowledge of thermal tolerance is taxonomically and geographically biased3, compromising global climate vulnerability assessments. Here we used a phylogenetically informed data-imputation approach to predict the heat tolerance of 60% of amphibian species and assessed their vulnerability to daily temperature variations in thermal refugia. We found that 104 out of 5,203 species (2%) are currently exposed to overheating events in shaded terrestrial conditions. Despite accounting for heat-tolerance plasticity, a 4 °C global temperature increase would create a step change in impact severity, pushing 7.5% of species beyond their physiological limits. In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical species encounter disproportionally more overheating events, while non-tropical species are more susceptible in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings challenge evidence for a general latitudinal gradient in overheating risk4,5,6 and underscore the importance of considering climatic variability in vulnerability assessments. We provide conservative estimates assuming access to cool shaded microenvironments. Thus, the impacts of global warming will probably exceed our projections. Our microclimate-explicit analyses demonstrate that vegetation and water bodies are critical in buffering amphibians during heat waves. Immediate action is needed to preserve and manage these microhabitat features.

DOI

https://doi.org/10.32942/X2T02T

Subjects

Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences

Keywords

climate change, Anura, caudata, Critical thermal maximum, behavioral thermoregulation, microclimate selection, biophysical modelling, Global analysis, thermal safety margin, warming tolerance, extreme heat events

Dates

Published: 2024-01-12 02:15

Last Updated: 2025-03-18 20:43

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License

CC BY Attribution 4.0 International

Additional Metadata

Conflict of interest statement:
The authors declare no conflicts of interest

Data and Code Availability Statement:
Data and code are available at https://github.com/p-pottier/Vulnerability_amphibians_global_warming. Note, however, that some intermediate data files were too large to be shared online. These files are available upon request.

Language:
English