Eva Conquet , Maria Paniw, Natalia Borrego, Chloé R. Nater , Craig Packer, Arpat Ozgul

Interactions between density and environmental conditions have important effects on vital rates and consequently on population dynamics and can take complex pathways in species whose demography is strongly influenced by social context, such as the African lion, Panthera leo. In populations of such species, the response of vital rates to density can vary depending on the social structure (e.g., effects of group size or composition). However, studies assessing density dependence in populations of lions and other social species have seldom considered the effects of multiple socially-explicit measures of density, and—more particularly for lions—of nomadic males. Additionally, vital-rate responses to interactions between the environment and various measures of density remain largely uninvestigated. To fill these knowledge gaps, we aimed to understand how a socially- and spatially-explicit consideration of density (i.e., at the local scale) and its interaction with environmental seasonality affect vital rates of lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used a Bayesian multistate capture-recapture model and Bayesian GLMMs to estimate lion stage-specific survival and between-stage transition rates, as well as reproduction probability and recruitment, while testing for season-specific effects of density measures at the group and home-range levels. We found evidence for several such effects. For example, resident-male survival increased more strongly with coalition size in the dry season compared to the wet season and adult-female abundance affected subadult survival negatively in the wet season, but positively in the dry season. Additionally, while our models showed no effect of nomadic males on adult-female survival, they revealed strong effects of nomads on key processes such as reproduction and takeover dynamics. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of accounting for seasonality and social context when assessing the effects of density on vital rates of Serengeti lions and of social species more generally.