Katherine Ennis, Paulo Quadri, Kai Zhu, Stacy M Philpott, Adam Millard-Ball

Coffee’s climate sensitivity contributes to extreme production and price fluctuations. However, as coffee is a perennial crop, producers have difficulty responding to short-term market shifts. Combining historical climate, production and price data from all coffee-growing municipalities in Mexico, we examined trends of climate and coffee production and then characterized and quantified coffee producer’s responses to changing conditions of climate and price. We collected and collated production, price, climate and topographic data from Mexican and U.S. governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations. Using a spatially-explicit approach we found that coffee-specific climate variables contributed to a 60% decline in Mexican coffee production since its peak in the 1989, and that farmers’ management responses to soaring temperatures, variable rainfall and price volatility are generally limited to improving yields via management efforts and altering the amount of crop they harvest.