Understanding local plant extinctions before it’s too late: bridging evolutionary genomics with global ecology.

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.18718. This is version 3 of this Preprint.

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Moises Exposito-Alonso 


Understanding evolutionary genomic and population processes within a species range is key to anticipating the extinction of plant species before it is too late. However, most models of biodiversity risk projections under global change do not account for the genetic variation and local adaptation of different populations. Population diversity is critical to understanding extinction because different populations may be more or less susceptible to global change and, if lost, would reduce the total diversity within a species. Two new modeling frameworks advance our understanding of extinction from a population and evolutionary angle: Rapid climate change-driven disruptions in population adaptation are predicted from associations between genomes and local climates. Furthermore, losses of population diversity from global land use transformations are estimated by scaling relationships of species' genomic diversity with habitat area. Overall, these global eco-evolutionary methods advance the predictability—and possibly the preventability—of the ongoing extinction of plant species.




Biodiversity, Bioinformatics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Genetics and Genomics, Life Sciences, Plant Sciences


extinction, genetic diversity, climate change, habitat loss, macrogenetics, genomic offset, biodiversity risk, environmental niche models, mutations-area relationship, landscape genomics


Published: 2022-12-01 00:10

Last Updated: 2022-12-04 15:31

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