Towards evolutionary predictions: current promises and challenges

This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: This is version 3 of this Preprint.

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Meike T. Wortel, Deepa Agashe, Susan F. Bailey, Claudia Bank, Karen Bisschop, Thomas Blankers, Johannes Cairns, Enrico Sandro Colizzi, Davide Cusseddu, Michael M. Desai


Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ, for example we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population, or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data that are used to make these predictions in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability, and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by creating a common language for evolutionary predictions.



Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Evolution, Life Sciences


biodiversity, biotechnology, evolutionary applications, evolutionary medicine, influenza, predicting evolution, SARS-SOV2


Published: 2021-08-25 01:23

Last Updated: 2022-09-27 06:23

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