The cost of a promise – the species conservation expenditure needed to meet Australia’s zero extinction target in the marine environment

Alexander Peska , Natasha C.R. Cadenhead, Jaana Dielenberg, Alexia Wellbelove, James Trezise, Hugh Possingham, Gretta Pecl, Brendan A. Wintle

The Global Biodiversity Framework has the goal of halting the human-induced extinction of species. An immense number of species are threatened with extinction, the task confronting nations is great, and the cost highly uncertain. We collated cost data for marine species recovery programs in the United States where there have been some successful threatened species recoveries. Based on the average expenditure on marine species conservation for four taxonomic groups (mammals, birds, fish, reptiles), we modelled the expected expenditure required to prevent extinction of 95 threatened Australian marine species. We discovered that Australia would need to spend approximately A$280.6m/yr (2023) (U$204.8m/yr (2023)) to avert the loss of 95 listed threatened Australian marine species, indicating the need for a significant increase in public expenditure on marine species conservation over current levels. The analysis assumes that costs and marine species conservation needs in Australia are, on average, equivalent to those in the USA, and that the ratio of public to private expenditure on marine conservation in Australia is similar to that in the USA. Agencies responsible for threatened species recovery should provide realistic, species-specific estimates of conservation expenditure needs to better understand the national threatened species expenditure gap.