Spatial crime scripting and meso-level analyses of illegal pangolin trade

Elda Yitbarek Bezuayene , Anne Stephanie Kobla, Bienvenu Takem Mbi, Carla Louise Mousset Moumbolou, Stéphanie Bourgeois, Stephan Ntie, St. Gael Bakoma, Claude Maganga Moussadji, Hannah Murray, Bistra Dilkina, Matthew H Shirley, Meredith L Gore

Human-related threats such as poaching and illegal trade remain the dominant risk to pangolin conservation. Using crime science focused on illegal pangolin hunting, we compare expert vs. community member’s spatio-temporal knowledge about the different stages of pangolin poaching and trade process at a national scale; explore spatial trajectories between stages; and explore spatial predictors of each stage. We conducted participatory risk mapping in December 2025 and April 2026. Points mapped by participants (n = 2,161) were coded and analyzed alongside open access secondary spatial data using a geographic information system. Participants had over 85% agreement in spatial knowledge about crime-related pangolin behavior. Vector pattern analysis signaled the existence of multi-destination groups rather than individuals, and distance to major cities dominated every crime stage, challenging assumptions about offenses being governed by distinct environmental variables. Integrating community spatial knowledge with crime scripting can inform evidence-based, geographically targeted interventions for endangered species protection.