Socioeconomic policy and large mature trees are vital for moor macaque (Macaca maura) conservation in anthropogenically-modified landscapes

Víctor Beltrán Francés, Anja Hutschenreiter, Gonzalo E. Pinilla-Buitrago, Rahman Fiqhi, Amiruddin Amiruddin, Risma Illa Maulany, Putu Oka Ngakan, Bonaventura Majolo, Federica Amici, Hjalmar S. Kühl

Despite conservation efforts, intensifying anthropogenic pressure is transforming tropical forests into anthropogenically-dominated landscapes. We investigated how current anthropogenic pressure and socioeconomic-climate policies influence tropical forest ecology, using the Endangered moor macaque (Macaca maura) in southwestern Sulawesi, Indonesia, as an example species. Deploying camera traps and acoustic recording units across 226 locations, we applied single-season occupancy models to assess the joint impacts of natural and anthropogenic factors on macaque occurrence. We then projected occupancy under three socioeconomic-climate scenarios (SSP-RCP) for 2050, 2075, and 2100. Although deforestation and Human Footprint Index reduced occupancy, the interaction between large mature trees (>30m tall) and forest edge density was the strongest predictor of species occupancy. This highlights that tall canopy structures can mitigate the negative impacts of forest fragmentation. Across all scenarios, the species’ distribution declined by at least 34% by 2050 due to agricultural expansion. Declines were most severe under high social inequality scenarios, emphasizing the critical role of socioeconomic equity for species conservation under high anthropogenic pressure. Our findings demonstrate that conserving and restoring high-quality forests is essential for moor macaque conservation, but an urgent reevaluation of their IUCN Red List assessment is needed due to the current and projected population isolation. Ultimately, long-term conservation success requires governance frameworks that integrate climate mitigation with socioeconomic equity to address deforestation drivers. This approach offers a replicable pathway for identifying conservation strategies for other species facing severe anthropogenic pressures.