Coexistence Nexus in practice: Operationalizing One Health across agroecological landscapes and zoonotic risk in Central America

Marina Voinson, Silvio J Crespin, Danilo Escobar, Miguel Moreno, Luis Castillo, Elizabeth Monserrath Coto Hernandez, Jorge E Garcia-Villata, Miriam A Gonzales Perez, Ricardo Rios, Kenia Romero, V. Sorto, J. G. Mejia Valencia, Marine Combe, Rodolphe E. Gozlan

Reconciling biodiversity conservation, agricultural systems, and human health remains a central sustainability challenge, yet these dimensions are often addressed in isolation. Here, we extend coexistence theory beyond its traditional focus on biodiversity conservation by integrating agricultural production and zoonotic risk within a One Health perspective. In doing so, we link biodiversity, food production systems, land-use dynamics, and disease emergence within a common spatially explicit analytical framework. Using Central America as a case study, we combine multi-pathogen occurrence data with spatial indicators of anthropogenic pressure, livestock density, biodiversity, and climate in a Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling framework to identify patterns of zoonotic emergence. Our results reveal strong spatial clustering of emergence risk and highlight non-linear relationships, particularly with livestock density, indicating that zoonotic emergence arises from interacting socio-ecological pressures rather than isolated drivers. We further identify convergence zones where environmental change, agricultural systems, and host diversity overlap, generating elevated levels of socio-ecological vulnerability. Importantly, we show that spatial integration of these dimensions provides a tractable approach for operationalizing the coexistence framework, allowing the identification of high-priority areas for surveillance and intervention. While our analysis focuses on environmental and production-related indicators rather than the full multidimensional scope of food security, it captures key interfaces through which biodiversity, agriculture, and health interactions unfold. Overall, this study demonstrates how integrating spatial epidemiology with social-ecological theory can help identify leverage points for reducing zoonotic risk while supporting more resilient and sustainable landscapes. By grounding the One Health perspective in spatially explicit analysis, it offers a practical pathway for informing land-use planning and regional disease surveillance strategies.