Making movement ecology into a predictive science

Franziska Hacker, Charlotte Christensen, Grace H Davis, Marlee A Tucker, Damien R. Farine

1. Movement allows animals to change their environmental surroundings and remain in suitable conditions. As environments shift, e.g. through predictable seasonal progression, individuals can adapt their movement strategies accordingly. However, novel climate change introduces unpredictable, atypical conditions (e.g. droughts, floods), which may drive distinct movement responses. Predicting how future conditions will affect these movement decisions requires a better understanding of how such environmental variability shapes animal movements.
2. Gaining predictive power in movement ecology requires establishing a baseline understanding of movements during typical conditions and responses to within-the-norm shifts in conditions. We propose that animals respond along different axes to changes in conditions, adjusting when, where, and how they move as different components of their environment change. Integrating responses across these three movement axes provides a powerful framework for identifying when change occurs (e.g. animals moving outside of their typical movement 'envelope') and for inferring the type of environmental change based on which axes are affected.
3. We propose a framework to detect ecologically meaningful environmental shifts, identify the type of change, and use animals as sentinels of novel environmental conditions. By comparing movement responses under predictable and unpredictable conditions, this framework enables the identification of key environmental elements or habitat features that are critical for survival. Such insight improves our ability to predict how species will be affected by—and respond to—future climate change.
4. Coupling large-scale, real-time animal tracking with our predictive movement ecology framework unlocks the potential to use animals as sentinels for detecting rapid and unpredictable environmental changes. Advancing movement ecology into a predictive science is essential for addressing questions about the impacts of novel environmental conditions on animals.