Should hunters fear the wolf? Effects of wolf recolonization on ungulate harvests in a multi-species European landscape

Jacopo Cerri, Maéva Bibal-Mazoyer, Lucas Cock-Bocanegra, Marcello Franchini, Ibra Edoardo Monti, Oliwia Józefowicz, Luca Corlatti

1. The recolonization of European landscapes by the gray wolf Canis lupus raises questions about the ecological effects of predators and their impact on human interests such as large-game hunting bags, leaving room for alarmism among hunters. 2. We investigated the impact of wolf on recreational hunting by using long-term (2006-2023) and high-resolution (234 hunting districts) hunting bag data on four species of wild ungulates harvested in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region (Italy), before and after the wolf recolonization. Species included the roe deer Capreolus capreolus, red deer Cervus elaphus, wild boar Sus scrofa and Northern chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). We used Bayesian Generalized Linear Models to control for spatiotemporal correlation, landscape composition and yearly climate. 3. For all the game species we did not detect any meaningful difference in the temporal evolution of hunting bags, with respect to the history of wolf recolonization. This may reflect several - and not mutually exclusive - mechanisms: the relatively small size of wolf population compared to the overall abundance of wild prey, predation impacts concentrated on juveniles, prey switching by wolves, or management decision to maintain hunting bags more or less consistent through time, irrespective of wolf presence. 4. Hunting bags for the roe deer suggested a decline in areas of the Po Plain with more than 7 years of wolf presence, possibly due to synergistic effects of predatory impacts and environmental quality. 5. Our findings do not rule out the possibility of long-term reductions in the hunting bags of wild ungulates, in response to the progressive increase in wolf numbers and thus the impact of predation. However, they do not support the idea that hunting bags decline rapidly following wolf recolonization of an area. 5. Policy implications: In the absence of detectable effects of wolf recolonization on ungulate hunting bags, accurate and transparent information becomes particularly important for effective wildlife management. Clear communication helps avoid alarmism and misleading management practices, while sustained dialogue among stakeholders - including hunters, scientists, and communication managers - is essential for understanding and anticipating the long-term consequences of predator recolonization.