Policy-Driven Forest Recovery in a Crisis-Affected Landscape: A Remote Sensing Study in the Rohingya Refugee Region of Bangladesh

Md Shahinur Rahman, Md Jamius Shams Sowrov, Md. Ariful Islam, Tamjidul Ridwan, Md Rafikul Islam, Tanmoy Das Utsha

Human displacement crises often place sudden pressure on forested environments where shelter materials and cooking fuel are sourced directly from nearby natural resources. Since 2017, the Rohingya refugee influx into Ukhiya and Teknaf sub-districts (Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh) has exerted intense pressure on surrounding forests through rapid settlement expansion and fuelwood extraction. In response, coordinated recovery initiatives, including reforestation and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) distribution, were introduced in later years. This study examines vegetation change and the effects of reforestation and LPG-distribution programs in vegetation recovery from 2016 to 2024 using multi-temporal Landsat 8 surface reflectance imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. Annual median composites were used to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and classify land cover into dense vegetation (NDVI > 0.50), light vegetation (0.20–0.50), and non-vegetated areas (≤ 0.20). Vegetation change was assessed using area estimation and spatial change detection, while temporal trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope nonparametric trend estimator. Results reveal a clear shift in vegetation dynamics. Between 2016 and 2018, dense vegetation declined sharply, while light vegetation and non-vegetated areas expanded, indicating widespread canopy disturbance linked to settlement growth and fuelwood use. Spatial analysis identified Kutupalong–Balukhali (Ukhiya) and Jadipara (Teknaf) as major degradation hotspots. Following policy interventions introduced in 2019, particularly large-scale LPG distribution and collaborative reforestation, vegetation trends reversed. Recovery was strongest in areas that had experienced the most severe degradation, although localized pressure persisted in parts of Unchiprang and Whykong of Ukhiya. Overall, the findings provide clear evidence that targeted policies, especially LPG distribution and coordinated reforestation, played a critical role in reversing crisis-driven forest loss and supporting landscape recovery.