Modeling evolutionary rescue

Hildegard Uecker, Matthew Osmond, Carla Alejandre, Ernesto Barrios-Caro, Dale Clement, Peter Czuppon, Léonard Dekens, Puneeth Deraje, Jeremy Draghi, Asad Hasan, Robert D. Holt , Teemu Kuosmanen, Alexander Longcamp, Loïc Marrec, Guillaume Martin, Christin Nyhoegen, Maria Orive, Vrinda Ravi Kumar, Ophélie Ronce, Remus Stana, Lindi Wahl, Masato Yamamichi

A population that avoids extinction by adapting to environmental change is said to be rescued by evolution. Evolutionary rescue is of fundamental interest in ecology and evolution and of great relevance in conservation, where rescue of endangered species is wanted, and in medicine and agriculture, where rescue (resistance evolution) of pathogens, cancers, and pests is unwanted. Theory plays a key role in understanding and predicting the dynamics and likelihood of rescue. Here, we provide a comprehensive resource on the state-of-the-art of modeling in evolutionary rescue research, including an overview of the current connection between theory and data. The accumulating body of theory includes a large number of complexities, giving us specific insights and shaping our perspective on when rescue is likely. Many of the themes dealt with in general models of evolutionary rescue also appear in the contexts of drug and pesticide resistance, calling for more synergistic interaction. Theoretical and experimental results are broadly consistent. Close ties are still rare but successful examples demonstrate the power of theory. Both simple and complex models are actively used to predict and manage rescue in nature, medicine, and agriculture but challenges remain in connecting what we can measure to what we can model.