Current and Future Habitat Suitability for Species of Concern at the Jack and Laura Dangermond Preserve

Xue Yan, Yanni Zhan, Wenxin Yang, Olivia Ross, Yifei Liu, Zijun Li, Isabelle (Izzy) Lopez, Isabella Perez, Emma Tao, Jacqueline Vogel, Diyang Cui, Lei Song, Amy E. Frazier

We modeled current habitat suitability for 45 special status species at the Jack and Laura Dangermond Preserve in Southern California using a suite of environmental and climate conditions and projected those models to forecast future habitat suitability at mid-century (2041-2070) under three emissions scenarios. For many species, habitat suitability at the Preserve may increase in the future under a moderate emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0), and while suitability for each individual species is driven by a different combination of environmental conditions, some overall trends did emerge. All groups (plants, birds, mammals, invertebrates, and herps) were highly impacted by precipitation seasonality and slope. For birds, temperature extremes were also important, including the mean daily minimum temperature of the coldest month and the mean daily maximum temperature of the warmest month. While for herps, invertebrates, and mammals, isothermality and mean daily maximum near-surface air temperature of the warmest month were strong predictors of habitat suitability. Model fits were lower for Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos), Loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia), Pacific pond turtle (Actinemys marmorata), Two-striped garter snake (Thamnophis hammondii), Pallid bat (Antrozous pallidus), Townsend’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus townsendii), Mountain lion (Puma concolor), and American badger (Taxidea taxus). There were insufficient observations to model the Point Conception Jerusalem cricket (Ammopelmatus muwu). For these species, we recommend adding observations, where possible, and contributing those observations to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) through platforms such as iNaturalist and eBird so they can be included in future replications.