Modelling the current and future potential distribution areas of Columba albitorques in Ethiopia

Aynyirad Tewodros

Understanding species’ responses to climate change is essential for predicting future biodiversity patterns and informing conservation strategies. However, in Ethiopia, the impacts of climate change on bird distributions remain poorly documented. This study applied MaxEnt modeling to predict the current and future distribution of the White-collared Pigeon (Columba albitorques) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Species occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim. Environmental predictors included land cover and human population density. The model performed well (AUC = 0.854), identifying maximum temperature, land cover, and human population density as the most influential predictors of Columba albitorques distribution. Future projections indicate substantial declines in suitable habitat, ranging from 44.5 to 54% by 2050 and 54.9 to 75.5% by 2070, with the largest reductions occurring under RCP 8.5 by 2070. These findings suggest that Columba albitorques may experience habitat contraction and increased elevational compression under warming scenarios. Conservation strategies that protect high-elevation habitats and reduce human-induced habitat degradation will be essential for maintaining viable populations under future climate conditions.