Modelling the current and future potential distribution areas of Columba albitorques in Ethiopia

Aynyirad Tewodros

Understanding species’ responses to climate change is essential for predicting future biodiversity patterns and informing conservation strategies. However, in Ethiopia, the impacts of climate change on bird distributions remain poorly documented. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future distribution of the White-collared Pigeon (Columba albitorques) under different climate scenarios. Species occurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and bioclimatic variables from WorldClim, along with land cover and human population density data, were used as environmental predictors. Multicollinearity among predictors was assessed to ensure that only biologically relevant and non-redundant variables were retained. Habitat suitability was then projected for 2050 and 2070 under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). The MaxEnt model performed well (AUC = 0.854), identifying maximum temperature, annual precipitation, land cover, and human population density as the most influential predictors of Columba albitorques distribution. Future projections indicate substantial declines in suitable habitat across all scenarios, with losses of 44.5–54% by 2050 and 54.9–75.5% by 2070, the largest reductions occurring under RCP 8.5 in 2070. These findings suggest that Columba albitorques is highly sensitive to climate warming and habitat alteration. Conservation efforts focused on protecting high-elevation habitats and mitigating human-induced habitat degradation will be essential for maintaining viable populations under future climate conditions