Recolonisation dynamics of grey wolves: delayed recovery in a Central European country

Miroslav Kutal, Aleš Vorel, Martin Duľa, Alžběta Báčová, Michal Bojda, Barbora Černá, Barbora Černá Bolfíková, Guillaume Chapron, Kristýna Chroboková, Sebastian Collet, Lucia Frgelecová, Jan Horníček, Karolina Mikslová, Jan Mokrý, Aldin Selimovic, Jana Šrutová, Nikola Tkáčová, Lukáš Žák, Pavel Hulva

Grey wolves have been recovering throughout Europe over the last decades, widely portrayed as a conservation success story. We evaluated the trends and demography of two wolf populations that recolonised the Czech Republic between 2011/2012 and 2022/2023, integrating a variety of fieldwork and laboratory methods including snow tracking, camera trapping, telemetry and non-invasive genetics, with some of these methods being carried out within a citizen science framework. We then compared these demographic trends with the frequency of wolf attacks on livestock. Wolf territories grew annually by λ = 1.25 ± 0.18 (0.92–1.68) in the Carpathian and λ = 1.39 ± 0.08 (1.22–1.57) in the Central European population. Over the same period, the growth rate of wolf attacks on livestock exceeded the growth rate of territories. Wolf pack sizes averaged 5.7 ± 0.24 individuals in autumn and winter, but packs in their first and second year were significantly smaller than those occupying a territory for at least three years. The wolf density in areas occupied by a wolf pack reached, on average, 4.19±0.49 individuals per 100 km². Overall, the recovery of the Central European wolf population in Czechia was delayed compared with neighbouring Germany and western Poland, and the Carpathian population recovered even six years later. We discuss that this delayed recovery may have been influenced by hunting pressure in neighbouring Slovakia prior 2021 or by other undetected sources of mortality, making the population vulnerable in the long term.