The Brightening Sky and the Bug's Advance: Unraveling the Drivers of Oxycarenus lavaterae Range Expansion

Volodymyr Tytar

Analyzing the Lime Seed Bug's (Oxycarenus lavaterae) European range expansion, optimized Maxent
models and comprehensive occurrence data (2007-2025) reveal a swift northward and eastward spread,
with a distinct "rapid expansion" phase starting in 2017. Key drivers include minimum and maximum
temperatures, and importantly, downward shortwave radiation (DSR). Increased DSR, linked to "global
brightening" from reduced air pollution since the 1990s, provides crucial thermal benefits. This enables
the bug's basking behavior to effectively elevate body temperatures, mitigating cold stress and
enhancing overwintering survival in newly colonized northern regions. Focusing on Ukraine and
Latvia, optimal habitat is predicted in Ukrainian regions like Transcarpathia, aligning with observed
occurrences, while Latvia shows minimal invasion chances. This study rigorously integrates statistical
modeling (including SHAP analysis) with biological insights, demonstrating how temperature extremes
and DSR act as physiological "bottlenecks" for the species' successful adaptation and expansion. The
findings advance understanding of insect range dynamics under climate change and regional air quality
improvements, providing critical insights for biodiversity conservation and targeted pest management.
Furthermore, the presented methodologies facilitate citizen science efforts for ongoing ecological
monitoring, empowering broader community participation in tracking environmental responses.
Continued interdisciplinary research on these climatic and anthropogenic factors is vital for refining
predictive models and informing adaptive management in a changing world.