Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Toward Ecological Forecasting of West Nile Virus in Florida: Insights from Two Decades of Surveillance
Published: 2025-05-20
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models, Virus Diseases
West Nile Virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States, yet transmission activity remains difficult to predict. This study used 20 years of digitized WNV seroconversion data from 526 sentinel chicken coops across Florida to develop spatiotemporal models with landscape and climate variables to predict WNV seroconversion at monthly and seasonal timescales. We [...]
Disordered and Partially Structured Models in Community Ecology: What are they? And how do we use them?
Published: 2025-05-15
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Community ecology describes how species interact with each other and with their environment. In nature, processes can be very complex because they involve hundreds to thousands of species interacting with each other in complex environmental landscapes. Classical approaches that have provided key insights have largely focused on the study of tractable subsets of species and patches, but these do [...]
The Hunt for Ancient DNA – Natural & Artificial
Published: 2025-05-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract: The recently released documentary titled “The Hunt for the Oldest DNA” was the inspiration for the writing of this paper. It is because Professor Eske Willerslev and I, David R. Wood, are both peers in two mirror fields of evolutionary science achieving similar breakthrough results using similar techniques to unconceal ancient DNA – natural and artificial. This paper goes through the [...]
Correcting Mesoudi’s Failed Concept of Societal Culture
Published: 2025-05-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Abstract: The natural species homo sapiens are not a cultural species. Homo sapiens instead artificially segregates itself into many artificial species (i.e., cultures) for competitive advantage in natural intraspecies competition – warfare, economics, etc. These artificial species are defined and categorized based on the distinct combination of artificial genomes, artificial structural [...]
Dragon Kill Points: applying a transparent working template to relieve authorship stress
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Arts and Humanities, Business, Education, Engineering, Law, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The concept of authorship, while straightforward in theory, proves to be remarkably complex in practice. While existing frameworks provide a foundation for classifying and ranking authorship roles, conflicts still arise when contributions are ambiguous or poorly documented. To address these issues, we propose Dragon Kill Points, adapted from multiplayer gaming, which tracks individual [...]
Overcoming “doom and gloom”: Envisioning desirable futures for Arctic biodiversity
Published: 2025-02-07
Subjects: Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sustainability
We co-created visions of desirable futures for Arctic biodiversity during a workshop which included representatives from academia, Indigenous Peoples, business and policy-making. Appreciating our diverse perspectives, we identified key actions that would enable the positive outcomes shared in our visions: boosting education, rethinking Arctic biodiversity governance, elevating the voices of [...]
Population structure plays a key role in community stability
Published: 2025-01-09
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The relationship between ecosystem complexity and stability remains unresolved and a mechanistic explanation for the stunning levels of biodiversity observed in communities and ecosystems is still lacking. Recent work has shown that differences in the foraging capacity and predation risk of juveniles versus adults within populations result in larger, more complex communities than predicted by [...]
Laguna Beach Nearshore Giant Kelp and Bryozoan
Published: 2024-12-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper examines the scattered nearshore kelp beds in Laguna Beach subtidal shallow rock reef substrate between Brooks Street and Thalia Street, referred to as town. The nearshore kelp is approximately 200 meters from the shore. This area has been protected since 2012 when it was considered a California Marine Protected Area (MPA) and classified as Laguna Beach State Marine Reserve (LBSMR). [...]
One Earth + One Health: An agile, evolutionary, system-of-systems, convergence paradigm for societal challenges of the Anthropocene
Published: 2024-12-06
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Evolutionary mechanisms enabled humans to profoundly transform Earth systems. Because the resulting Anthropocene systems are highly interdependent and dynamically evolving, often with accelerating rates of cultural and technological evolution, the ensuing family of societal challenges must be framed and addressed in a holistic fashion. An agile, evolutionary, system-of-systems, convergence [...]
Managing Water for Birds—a Tool for the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge
Published: 2024-10-22
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
The “Water for Birds Tool” is a spreadsheet-based model (using Microsoft Excel) designed to help resource managers assess the spatial extent and types of bird habitats in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge. The model quantifies the areas of open water, partial water, and water depths on a monthly timescale during the irrigation season (April–July) from 2021–2024. This model combines previously [...]
Background nutrient concentration determines phytoplankton bloom response to marine heatwaves
Published: 2024-10-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean temperature extreme events such as marine heatwaves are expected to intensify in coming decades due to anthropogenic global warming. Reported ecological and economic impacts of marine heatwaves include coral bleaching, local extinction of mangrove and kelp forests, and elevated mortalities of invertebrates, fishes, seabirds, and marine mammals. In contrast, little is known about the impacts [...]
An introduction to generative network models and how they may be used to study animal sociality
Published: 2024-09-18
Subjects: Behavior and Ethology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Social networks constitute an important approach in the study of animal social behaviour. So far, focus has been on statistical analysis of animal social network structures. However, social networks can also be studied by generative network models - procedures that create simulated network structures. These models play a key role in wider network science, but despite occasional use, have not yet [...]
Sixty years since Silent Spring: a map of meta-analyses on organochlorine pesticides reveals urgent needs for improving methodological quality
Published: 2024-04-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring inspired a wave of research on the impacts of organochlorine pesticides, followed by a subsequent wave of meta-analyses. These meta-analyses are now routinely used to inform policy decisions. However, the methodological quality of meta-analyses on organochlorine pesticides remains largely unknown. Here, our study systematically maps and evaluates the methodological [...]
Equivalence between short- and long-distance dispersal in individual animal movement
Published: 2024-03-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Random walks (RW) provide a useful modelling framework for the movement of animals at an individual level. If the RW is uncorrelated and unbiased such that the direction of movement is completely random, the dispersal is characterised by the statistical properties of the probability distribution of step lengths, or the dispersal kernel. Whether an individual exhibits short-or long-distance [...]
New directions for Indigenous and Local Knowledge research and application in fisheries science: Lessons from a Systematic Review
Published: 2024-03-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Social-ecological systems like fisheries provide food, livelihoods, and recreation. However, lack of data and its integration into governance hinders their conservation and management. Stakeholders possess site-specific knowledge crucial for confronting these challenges. There is increasing recognition that Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) is valuable, but structural differences between ILK [...]