Joel L Pick, Hannah Lemon, Caroline Elizabeth Thomson, Jarrod Hadfield

The major frameworks for predicting evolutionary change assume that a phenotypes underlying genetic and environmental components are normally distributed. However, the predictions of these frameworks may no longer hold if distributions are skewed. Despite this, phenotypic skew has never been decomposed, meaning the fundamental assumptions of quantitative genetics remain untested. Here, we demonstrate that the substantial phenotypic skew in the body size of juvenile blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) is driven by environmental factors. Although skew had little impact on our predictions of selection response in this case, our results highlight the impact of skew on the estimation of inheritance and selection. Specifically, the non-linear parent-offspring regressions induced by skew, alongside selective disappearance, can strongly bias estimates of heritability. The ubiquity of skew and strong directional selection on juvenile body size implies that heritability is commonly overestimated, which may in part explain the discrepancy between predicted and observed trait evolution.