Oliver C. Stringham, Pablo García‐Díaz, Adam Toomes, Lewis Mitchell, Joshua V. Ross, Phillip Cassey

Western countries are less frequently implicated in illegal wildlife trade (IWT), contrasted with other transnational consumers, yet substantial evidence suggests that they contribute prominently. Live animal smuggling presents a suite of biosecurity concerns, including invasive species and disease risks. Here, we compared the live alien reptile species smuggled to Australia (75 species) to the legal trade of live reptile species in the United States (US) and constructed a Bayesian regularized model to predict the species most likely to be of greatest future smuggling risk to Australia. Australia has particularly strict import laws barring the entry and keeping of alien reptiles and maintains detailed biosecurity seizure records. Almost all smuggled reptile species were found in the legal US exotic pet market (98.6%), and we observed an average time lag of 4.2 years between a species first appearing in the US market and its subsequent detection in Australia. A species popularity in US pet stores, popularity on international online markets, and the number of years in US import-export records were all positively associated with the probability of species being smuggled to Australia. Our predictive model provides a much-needed early-warning guide for future biosecurity enforcement of the IWT and provides a framework for anticipating future trends in wildlife smuggling.