Can climate change studies guide primate conservation in Africa? A systematic review of observed and projected impacts

Issaka Abdou Razakou Kiribou, Sintayehu Workeneh Dejene, Amanda H Korstjens, Christopher PO Reyer, Stefanie Heinicke 

Climate change is a growing threat, but its impact on species often remains poorly quantified which hampers conservation decisions. African primates are a conservation priority taxon, with 90% of species experiencing population decline. Yet, climate change impacts on this group remain comparatively understudied. We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature (n=58 studies, 2016-2025) to assess whether evidence on observed and projected impacts can guide conservation decisions. Observed studies (n=33) show that exposure to rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, and extreme events is well documented, and that weather variability affects fertility, survival, and stress in primates. However, only two studies focused on attribution and isolated climate change as a driver of these responses. Adaptive capacity is the least examined dimension of vulnerability, and no study quantified wildfire responses despite documented exposure. Projection studies (n=12) rely mainly on species distribution models, which estimate habitat suitability but not the mechanisms through which climate change affects populations. Current evidence can therefore identify exposed species and guide where climate-informed management is warranted, but rarely suffices to inform targeted interventions. Investment in infrastructure and capacity to conduct long-term monitoring and apply mechanistic methods is needed to attribute impacts to climate change and select specific conservation interventions.