Modeling Mosquito Dynamics and West Nile Virus Risk in Canada: A Systematic Mapping Review of Approaches and Research Gaps

Joseph Baafi , Huaiping Zhu

Mosquito population dynamics are strongly shaped by environmental conditions and are central to mosquito-borne disease risk. In Canada, West Nile virus (WNV) remains the dominant mosquito-borne viral disease of public health concern, while climate change may alter mosquito distributions, seasonal activity, and the risk of WNV and other emerging mosquito-borne diseases. This systematic mapping review synthesizes Canadian studies on mosquito population dynamics, vector distribution, surveillance, WNV risk, and emerging mosquito-borne disease risk, with attention to modeling approaches, environmental drivers, biological-process representation, data sources, model support, and geographic coverage. A total of 50 studies met the eligibility criteria. Statistical and data-driven models formed the largest modeling category, while mechanistic mosquito population models provided the clearest representation of life-history processes. Temperature was the most consistently represented environmental driver, whereas precipitation was commonly included but represented in varying ways. Model support and transparency varied, with calibration reported more often than independent validation, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, out-of-sample prediction, or code and data availability. Studies were concentrated in Ontario and national-scale analyses; Atlantic and northern Canada were represented by a small number of empirical or surveillance studies but lacked eligible quantitative modeling studies. The main gap is the lack of integrated models linking climate-sensitive mosquito population dynamics, surveillance data, and WNV transmission. Future work should prioritize integrated, climate-informed frameworks to support mosquito and WNV risk assessment in Canada.