Potential impacts of Ground-mounted photovoltaic panels on land cover and carbon storage in Norway – a scenario analysis

Trond Simensen , Jonathan Rizzi, Anne Catriona Mehlhoop, Matthew Grainger, Erlend Hustad Honningdalsnes, Heine Nygard Riise

In cool-temperate and boreal regions, ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV) is rapidly emerging as a new land use, but planning-relevant evidence on land requirements, siting options, and land-system impacts remains limited. Based on an analysis of built and planned ground-mounted PV projects in Norway (n = 77), we quantify size, capacity density, land-cover composition and net greenhouse gas effects, and model land use requirements to 2050 under contrasting siting strategies. Current and proposed projects are largely concentrated in forest and woodlands (96.4% of mapped project area), with median capacity density and energy yield density clustering around ~80 MWp/km² and ~84 GWh/km²/year. For the assessed siting pattern, combined land-use-related and PV life-cycle emissions were approximately 5,000 t CO₂e per km² per year, annualised over 30 years. This estimate implies net emissions reductions if PV displaces electricity with the emission intensity of the EU-27 mix but increases relative to the current Norwegian mix. Achieving about 1, 4, or 21 GWp by 2050 would require approximately 15, 56, and 268 km² of land, respectively. Shifting development towards agricultural and heavily modified land slightly increases overall land demand by ca. 25 % under our scenario assumptions but can reduce expansion into (semi-)natural ecosystems, reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land cover changes, while offering opportunities for co-use and biodiversity mitigation. The results support a diverse siting strategy, with greater use of previously modified land and agricultural co-use, guided by site-specific assessment and monitoring of land-use and ecosystem impacts.