A Geospatial informed Conservation Strategy for Sustainable Management of Dalbergia sissoo (Roxb.) Population in India amidst Climate Change and Pathogen Induced Mortality Stress

Ronak Singh, Sonu Choudhary, Jassi Sharma, Sk Mujibar Rahaman, Shibnarayan Pratihar, V Rathna, Basant Kumar, shailesh Pandey, Ashwani Tapwal, R K Meena, Ajay Thakur, Rajesh Kumar, Sangeeta Singh, Aviral Asaiyya, Amit Pandey, sharad tiwari 

The natural population of Dalbergia sissoo, is declining due to biotic and abiotic stressors. Existing studies focus on pathogen-induced mortality in D. sissoo, but the impact of climate on habitat loss and population decline is limited. This study fills this gap by integrating climate change impacts and pathogen outbreaks to assess their combined influence on the distribution and survival of D. sissoo. Field assessments identified Neofusicoccum solani and Ganoderma lucidum as the predominant pathogens contributing to widespread mortality. Using MaxEnt, we evaluated habitat suitability across the Indian subcontinent under climate models IPSL-6A_LR and MIROC6A proxied through Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP-126, 245, 370, 585. Presently, ~ 19% of the study area was found suitable for D. sissoo distribution, primarily concentrated in northern and eastern India. However, depending upon the climate scenario, projections for 2050 suggest a substantial reduction in habitat, limiting the current suitable range to ~5–16%, with a northward shift. Among bioclimatic variables, Bio_9 (mean temperature of driest quarter) contributed most to limiting the distribution of D. sissoo. We recommend a collaborative approach to assess pathogen risk and climate resilience into restoration planning and advocates for a combined in-situ and ex-situ conservation and sustainable management of D. sissoo population.