This is a Preprint and has not been peer reviewed. The published version of this Preprint is available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109262. This is version 1 of this Preprint.
![Integrating dynamic plant growth models and microclimates for species distribution modelling](/media/repos/2/842cda25-7d2c-4fdc-99de-a5740716f653.jpg)
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Abstract
Climate is a major factor determining the distribution of plant species. Correlative models are frequently used to model the relationships between species distributions and climatic drivers but, increasingly, their use for prediction in novel scenarios such as climate change is being questioned. Mechanistic models, where processes limiting plant distribution are explicitly included, are regarded as preferable but more challenging.
The availability of tools for simulating microclimates with high spatial and temporal definition has also opened new possibilities for simulating the limiting environmental stresses experienced by plant over their ontogeny. However, the field of mechanistic species distribution modelling is relatively new and the tools and theory for constructing these models are underdeveloped.
In this paper we explore the potential for using a Dynamic Energy Budget model of organism growth integrated with microclimate and photosynthesis models. We model the interactions of plant growth and microclimatic stressors over the life stages of plant growth, and scale them up to demonstrate predictions of distribution at the continental scale. We develop the model using Julia, a new language for scientific computing, as a set of generic modelling packages. These have a modular, toolkit structure that has the potential to increase the efficiency and transparency of developing mechanistic SDMs.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.32942/osf.io/ja4m6
Subjects
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences, Plant Sciences
Keywords
DEB plant growth model SDM species distribution microclimate
Dates
Published: 2020-08-11 15:09
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